The Outlook for Smaller Exports From India Boosts Sugar Prices

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed up +0.04 (+0.27%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +0.80 (+0.19%).

Sugar prices settled higher on Monday as they continue to consolidate below last Wednesday’s 1-month highs. Sugar is supported by the recent news that India’s food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies.

Sugar prices also have carryover support from November 14, when India’s food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, below earlier estimates of 2 MMT. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.

On the bearish side for sugar, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) last Monday forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. In August, ISO had previously forecast a 231,000 MT deficit for the 2025-26 marketing year. ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26.

The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has hammered sugar prices over the past month. On November 13, London sugar posted a 4.75-year nearest-futures low (SWZ25), and on November 6, NY sugar prices slumped to a 5-year nearest-futures low (SBH26), mainly due to higher sugar output in Brazil and talk of a global sugar surplus. Sugar trader Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of 7.5 MMT.

The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica recently reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the second half of October rose by +16.4% y/y to 2.068 MT. Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of October increased to 46.02% from 45.91% the same time last year. In addition, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through October rose +1.6% y/y to 38.085 MMT.

Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. FAS also predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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